New Mexico’s Republicans don’t have to wait until Election Day for somber news.
They again will be the minority party in both houses of the state Legislature. Sure, the GOP will stick to its familiar script, claiming it’s making a comeback. But one needn’t be another George Gallup to see what’s coming this fall.
Under their party chairman, “Amarillo†Steve Pearce, Republicans win legislative districts that are lopsided in their favor. They lose most everything else.
The majority of state legislative districts favor Democrats, putting Pearce a step behind the starting line. He’s worsened his position by building New Mexico’s Republican brand as that of a Little Texas, gung-ho for Donald Trump and rural candidates similar to Pearce.
Democrats have prospered with Pearce leading the opposition. They control the state Senate 27-15 and are positioned to keep their advantage.
Democrats in the general election will win 18 Senate seats without any opposition. They have solid to overwhelming advantages in eight other districts and a chance in a couple of tossup races.
Most embarrassing for Pearce is how Republicans have already lost Senate District 30. The incumbent, Republican Joshua Sanchez of Bosque, found himself removed from his turf in redistricting.
Sanchez is running for another term in a different Senate district. Neither Pearce nor any of his lieutenants seemed to notice. Republicans failed to field a candidate in District 30, leaving Democratic newcomer Angel Charley without an opponent this fall.
In spite of Pearce, Republicans have a chance to pick up two Senate seats, one because of redistricting, the other thanks to financial pressures on a household.
Senate District 12 was a Democratic stronghold represented for the last 20 years by Jerry Ortiz y Pino, an affable, unabashed liberal. Ortiz y Pino in 2020 won reelection to the Senate with 77% of the vote. Redistricting began the next year, and he let Democratic colleagues know he would retire from the Legislature after the 2024 election.
Democrats redrew Ortiz y Pino’s district, which had been confined to Bernalillo County. Redistricting diluted the Bernalillo section and added a swath of conservative Sandoval County. With the change, other Senate districts became more Democratic.
But Republican Jay Block, a Sandoval County commissioner, now has a chance to win a District 12 bearing little resemblance to the one Ortiz y Pino dominated.
Another potential pickup for Republicans is in southwestern New Mexico’s District 28. Democratic Sen. Siah Correa Hemphill of Silver City belatedly dropped her reelection campaign.
New Mexico legislators do not receive a base salary. Correa Hemphill said she must return to work to help support her family, including her disabled adult son.
That turn of events gives Republican Gabriel Ramos an opportunity to reclaim the seat. Ramos used to be a Democrat, and during that time he served part of a term as the appointed senator in District 28.
After Correa Hemphill routed Ramos in the 2020 Democratic primary, his response was to become a Republican.
Ramos would have been the underdog this fall against Correa Hemphill. He now looks like the favorite, having raised more than three times as much money as the Democrats’ replacement candidate, Chris Ponce.
In the state House of Representatives, Democrats control the chamber 45-25. They will retain the majority in an election where more than half of the winners of House races already are known.
Twenty-one Democrats and 16 Republicans have no opposition in November.
Another 19 Democrats and four Republicans are poised to win their races. Several face token opposition.
For instance, Rep. Christine Chandler, D-Los Alamos, is running against a Libertarian who won his, ahem, competitive primary with 18 votes. Chandler received 2,130 votes in her primary. Republicans didn’t field a candidate in Chandler’s District 43, their norm in ·è¿ÍÖ±²¥ Fe-area elections.
What’s left are 10 House races that look competitive. Even if Republicans swept them, an unlikely outcome, they would still be in the minority, 40-30. If the major parties split the closer contests, the House would remain 45-25 in favor of Democrats.
Perhaps the Republicans’ best chance of a pickup rests with former Rep. Rebecca Dow of Truth or Consequences. She gave up her seat in 2022 to run for governor, a resounding failure.
Dow received 18,000 votes statewide in the Republican primary. The winner, Mark Ronchetti, had almost 22,000 votes in Bernalillo County alone and more than 68,000 statewide.
Democrats redrew Dow’s old House District 38 as she departed the Legislature. She had to move to get back inside its boundaries.
But Dow is flush with cash — almost $183,000, according to the campaign report she filed last week. Freshman Rep. Tara Jaramillo, D-Socorro, listed $120,000 in her campaign treasury.
Both parties will be fixated on whether Jaramillo, a successful businesswoman, can outpoint one of the state’s better-known Republicans.
A victory by Dow would give Pearce something to crow about. That shouldn’t drown out the question Republicans ought to be asking: How on earth did Pearce win three consecutive terms as their chairman?
